Lancaster City vs Leek Town — Non League Premier - Northern
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Lancaster City and Leek Town meet in the Non League Premier - Northern 2026 season on 17 October 2026. Lancaster City have recorded 7 wins from 19 matches this season (37% win rate), averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 63% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 63%; and clean sheets in 21% of games. Leek Town have won 26% of their 19 matches, with 1.89 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 84%, Over 2.5 at 63%, and clean sheets at 16%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.58 for Lancaster City and 1.59 for Leek Town. The models give Lancaster City a 42% win probability, with a draw at 25% and an Leek Town win at 33%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 61% and BTTS at 63%.
Season Statistics
Lancaster City—
Leek Town10º
Position
18º
1.43
PPG
0.92
43%
Win %
17%
1.36
Goals / game
2.00
1.86
Conceded / game
2.08
63%
BTTS %
84%
21%
Clean sheet %
16%
63%
Over 2.5 %
63%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Lancaster City
Home (7)
—
Leek Town
Away (5)
1.43
PPG
0.60
43%
Win %
0%
1.00
Goals / game
2.00
1.43
Conceded / game
2.40
56%
BTTS %
70%
22%
Clean sheet %
30%
56%
Over 2.5 %
50%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Lancaster City | Home | Away | Leek Town | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 84% | 78% | 90% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 42% | 33% | 50% | 47% | 44% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 5% | 0% | 10% | 21% | 22% | 20% |
| Failed To Score | 16% | 22% | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Goals Conceded
| Lancaster City | Home | Away | Leek Town | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 79% | 78% | 80% | 84% | 100% | 70% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 53% | 56% | 50% | 47% | 56% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 26% | 11% | 40% | 21% | 11% | 30% |
| Clean Sheets | 21% | 22% | 20% | 16% | 0% | 30% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Lancaster City | Leek Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 100% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 95% |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 37% | 37% |
| Over 4.5 | 16% | 32% |
| BTTS | 63% | 84% |
| BTTS & Win | 16% | 11% |
| BTTS & Draw | 21% | 42% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 58% | 58% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 5% | 5% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Lancaster City | Leek Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 26% | 42% |
| Draw 1st Half | 47% | 32% |
| Loss 1st Half | 26% | 26% |
| Scored 1st Half | 58% | 74% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 58% | 68% |
| Win 2nd Half | 26% | 26% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 26% | 37% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 47% | 37% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 53% | 42% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 58% | 53% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 84% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 37% | 53% |
Recent Venue Form
Lancaster City (H)W
Stockton Town1–0
Stockton Town1–0W
Ilkeston Town2–1
Ilkeston Town2–1L
Curzon Ashton0–2
Curzon Ashton0–2D
Tadcaster Albion1–1
Tadcaster Albion1–1L
Workington0–3
Workington0–3D
Quorn2–2
Quorn2–2Leek Town (A)W
Worcester City2–0
Worcester City2–0L
Bromsgrove Sporting1–2
Bromsgrove Sporting1–2L
Redcar Athletic2–3
Redcar Athletic2–3W
Sporting Khalsa5–0
Sporting Khalsa5–0LWorkington2–3
Workington2–3D
Avro4–4
Avro4–4Head to Head · 4 matches
2
Lancaster City
50%
0
Draws
0%
2
Leek Town
50%
50%
Over 1.5
2/4
50%
Over 2.5
2/4
0%
Over 3.5
0/4
50%
BTTS
2/4
14/02/26Leek Town
Lancaster City
2–1Leek Town11/10/25Lancaster City
Leek Town
0–1Lancaster City18/01/25Lancaster City
Leek Town
2–1Lancaster City01/10/24Leek Town
Lancaster City
0–1Leek Town| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Redcar Athletic | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | +19 | 31 |
| 2 |  Cleethorpes Town | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | +23 | 30 |
| 3 |  Guiseley AFC | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | +14 | 25 |
| 4 | Avro | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | +11 | 25 |
| 5 |  Rylands | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | +4 | 23 |
| 6 |  Gainsborough Trinity | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | +9 | 22 |
| 7 | Curzon Ashton | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | +8 | 22 |
| 8 |  Warrington Town | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | +5 | 22 |
| 9 | Workington | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 21 |
| 10 | Lancaster City | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 20 |
| 11 |  Bury | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | +11 | 19 |
| 12 |  Alfreton Town | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | +4 | 19 |
| 13 |  Whitby Town | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 16 |
| 14 |  Hyde United | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 15 |
| 15 |  Ashton United | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 14 |
| 16 | Quorn | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -6 | 14 |
| 17 | Stockton Town | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -8 | 12 |
| 18 | Leek Town | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 11 |
| 19 |  AFC Emley | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -13 | 11 |
| 20 |  Bamber Bridge | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -16 | 10 |
| 21 |  United of Manchester | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -8 | 7 |
| 22 | Ilkeston Town | 14 | 2 | 1 | 11 | -26 | 7 |
Team Insights
Lancaster City- ●Lancaster City have scored in each of their last 5 matches.
- ●Lancaster City have won their last 2 home matches.
- ●Lancaster City have scored in each of their last 7 away matches.
- ●Lancaster City have scored a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 4 away matches.
- ●Lancaster City failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 7 home matches.
- ●Lancaster City failed to keep a clean sheet in 6 of their 7 away matches.
- ●Lancaster City have won 3 of their 7 away matches.
- ●Lancaster City have scored in 7 of their 7 away matches.
- ●63% of Lancaster City's goals have been scored away.
Leek Town- ●Leek Town have been undefeated in their last 3 matches.
- ●Leek Town failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 12 matches.
- ●Leek Town have scored in each of their last 12 matches.
- ●Leek Town have scored a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 4 matches.
- ●Leek Town have been undefeated in their last 3 home matches.
- ●Leek Town failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 7 home matches.
- ●Leek Town have scored in each of their last 7 home matches.
- ●Leek Town have lost their last 2 away matches.
- ●Leek Town failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 5 away matches.
- ●Leek Town have scored in each of their last 5 away matches.
- ●Leek Town have scored a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 away matches.
- ●Leek Town have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 away matches.
- ●Leek Town failed to keep a clean sheet in 7 of their 7 home matches.
- ●Leek Town have scored in 7 of their 7 home matches.
- ●Leek Town failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 5 away matches.
- ●Leek Town have scored in 5 of their 5 away matches.
Season Schedule
Lancaster CityWHStockton Town1–0
Stockton Town1–0DAWarrington Town2–2
Warrington Town2–2LAAvro3–5
Avro3–5WHIlkeston Town2–1
Ilkeston Town2–1WAWhitby Town2–1
Whitby Town2–1LHCurzon Ashton0–2
Curzon Ashton0–2–HLeek Town17/10
Leek Town17/10–AAFC Emley24/10
AFC Emley24/10–AUnited of Manchester31/10
United of Manchester31/10Leek TownDHAshton United2–2
Ashton United2–2DHRylands3–3
Rylands3–3WHHyde United2–1
Hyde United2–1LARedcar Athletic2–3
Redcar Athletic2–3LHWarrington Town1–2
Warrington Town1–2LAWorkington2–3
Workington2–3–ALancaster City17/10
Lancaster City17/10–ACurzon Ashton31/10
Curzon Ashton31/10–AGuiseley AFC03/11
Guiseley AFC03/11Top Scorers
Lancaster CityS. Yawson4 ⚽
S. Bailey3 ⚽
C. Bailey3 ⚽
D. Lawson3 ⚽
J. Craig3 ⚽
S. Sanogo2 ⚽
Leek TownJ. Griffiths6 ⚽
C. Heath4 ⚽
H. Campbell3 ⚽
A. Hurst3 ⚽
A. Panter3 ⚽
3 ⚽
Cards Given
Lancaster CityJ. Nolan1 🟨
Leek TownA. Hurst1 🟨