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Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations — xG (Expected Goals)

World · 2025/26

World — Africa Cup of Nations 2025/26 — Detailed Stats
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Goals
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Expected Goals (xG)

xG data available for 7 games
#TeamMPxGFxGF/gxGAxGA/gGFGADiff
1Senegal614.82.474.10.68122-2.8
2Nigeria712.91.843.80.54144+1.1
3Morocco610.11.681.60.2691-1.1
4Egypt79.11.308.81.2695-0.1
5Algeria57.51.514.40.8883+0.5
6South Africa47.21.814.41.1066-1.2
7Ivory Coast56.31.264.10.82106+3.7
8Gabon34.71.574.11.3647-0.7
9Cameroon54.70.944.10.8265+1.3
10Tunisia44.41.102.80.7176+2.6
11Angola34.41.473.11.0523-2.4
12Congo DR44.41.103.80.9452+0.6
13Benin44.11.025.31.3427-2.1
14Burkina Faso43.80.943.50.8645+0.2
15Mali53.50.696.01.2034-0.5
16Zimbabwe33.11.058.22.7346+0.9
17Mozambique42.80.719.42.3649+1.2
18Uganda32.50.844.11.3637+0.5
19Sudan42.50.636.91.7328-0.5
20Tanzania42.20.557.21.8135+0.8
21Equatorial Guinea32.20.734.11.3626-0.2
22Comoros31.30.422.80.9402-1.2
23Zambia30.60.214.71.5714+0.4
24Botswana30.60.218.52.8307-0.6
xGF = xG For (created)xGA = xG Against (conceded)Diff = GF − xGF (over/under-performing)
* xG estimated from shots on goal using the league's average conversion rate. API xG data is not available for this league.
xG Attack Ranking
SenegalHigh xGF2.47
NigeriaHigh xGF1.84
South AfricaHigh xGF1.81
BotswanaLow xGF0.21
ZambiaLow xGF0.21
ComorosLow xGF0.42

LEAGUE xG STATS

24 teams with xG data
League avg xGF/g: 1.09
League avg xGA/g: 1.27
Best overperformer: Ivory Coast (+3.7)
Biggest underperformer: Senegal (-2.8)

Africa Cup of Nations (World) — Expected Goals (xG) Analysis

The Africa Cup of Nations (World) averages 1.09 xG per game this season. Senegal creates the most chances with 2.47 xGF per game, while Botswana creates the fewest with 0.21 xGF per game. Ivory Coast is over-performing their xG (10 goals vs 6.3 xGF) — regression likely. Senegal is under-performing (12 goals vs 14.8 xGF) — improvement expected.

Betting Angle — xG & Regression Markets

xG is the most powerful predictor of future performance — teams that consistently over-perform their xG (scoring more than expected) tend to regress. Look for under-performing high-xG teams as value opportunities in match result markets, especially Asian Handicap and Both Teams To Score.

Expected Goals (xG) — World